Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with a solid lead of 295 Electoral College votes over Kamala Harris’s 226, not only accentuates his sustained appeal among American voters but also signals a potentially transformative shift in U.S. foreign policy. For India, a strategic partner of the United States, Trump’s re-election opens doors for strengthened economic ties, security cooperation, and geopolitical realignments while presenting a range of new challenges.
Strengthened Economic Prospects for India
India has seen a favourable market response following Trump’s election victory, with indices like the NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex climbing, a signal of optimism surrounding Trump’s pro-business policies. India’s economy, particularly sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, stands to benefit significantly due to Trump’s economic stance, which could boost bilateral trade and create growth opportunities.
- Trade Opportunities Amid U.S.-China Tensions
Trump’s anticipated tariffs on Chinese goods create a strategic advantage for Indian manufacturers. With increased tariffs making Chinese imports less competitive in the U.S., Indian products, especially in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automotive parts, have a greater opportunity to meet American demand. As U.S. companies seek alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, India could position itself as a viable production hub, potentially attracting U.S. firms looking to diversify their supply chains. - Economic Corridor with Middle East and Europe
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) aligns with Trump’s agenda of establishing alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This corridor would boost connectivity and improve trade between India, the Middle East, and Europe, thereby enhancing India’s access to European markets and strengthening its partnerships in the Middle East. This development could position India as a key player in global supply chains for pharmaceuticals, technology, and infrastructure, markets where both the U.S. and India share vested interests.
Deepened Defence and Strategic Partnerships
India has maintained robust defence ties with the U.S. in recent years, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump’s stance on containing China aligns closely with India’s defence objectives, promising opportunities for further cooperation.
- Strengthened Military Collaboration
The Trump administration is likely to deepen defence ties with India, supporting joint operations and security initiatives that bolster both nations’ positions against Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s administration is expected to advance defence equipment deals and joint military exercises, enhancing India’s capability to defend its maritime borders and strategic interests. - Strategic Pressure on Pakistan
Trump’s consistent stance against Pakistan’s ties to terrorism has historically resulted in cuts to U.S. military aid for Pakistan. His re-election could mean increased diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to take definitive actions against terrorist groups. This approach benefits India by providing a more favourable environment for its security interests in the region. Enhanced U.S.-India security cooperation could lead to intelligence sharing and joint counter-terrorism initiatives targeting mutual threats.
Economic Challenges and Risks
Despite the opportunities, Trump’s “America First” policies could present significant challenges for India’s economy. From tariffs to currency fluctuations, India must brace for potential obstacles under Trump’s administration.
- Tariff Pressures
Trump has previously labelled India as a “trade abuser,” criticising its tariff policies. His return to power could mean heightened pressure on India to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods. Given that the U.S. is India’s largest export destination, generating nearly $77.5 billion in FY24, higher tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. could impact sectors like textiles and machinery, making Indian goods less competitive and affecting revenue. - Currency Fluctuations and Commodity Costs
Trump’s economic policies could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, making the Indian rupee weaker by comparison. While a weaker rupee may boost the competitiveness of Indian exports, it also increases the cost of imports, especially crucial commodities like oil, putting inflationary pressure on India’s economy. Additionally, a strong dollar could raise the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, impacting industries reliant on imports and potentially squeezing profit margins for Indian companies.
U.S.-Russia Relations and India’s Strategic Calculations
Trump’s rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests a more stable U.S.-Russia relationship than seen under previous administrations. India, which has traditionally maintained a non-aligned stance, finds itself navigating a complex diplomatic balance as it seeks to sustain strong ties with both the U.S. and Russia.
- Defence Procurement and Geopolitical Balancing
India has historically sourced defence equipment from Russia. While Trump’s administration might encourage India to align more closely with Western interests, maintaining a neutral stance is vital to India’s foreign policy. India’s balancing act between U.S. and Russian interests could become more nuanced, as the Trump administration may pressure New Delhi to reconsider its dependence on Russian military equipment. - Energy and Economic Considerations
With Trump’s administration easing tensions with Russia, India could explore energy partnerships involving Russian oil and gas without straining its relations with the U.S. The steady U.S.-Russia ties could enable India to strengthen its energy strategy, balancing partnerships across both nations while addressing domestic energy needs.
Immigration and Visa Concerns
Trump’s stance on immigration, particularly H-1B visas, has historically been restrictive. This poses a challenge for India’s IT sector, which relies heavily on sending skilled workers to the U.S. for client-based projects.
- Impact on Indian IT Professionals
With Trump’s “America First” policies prioritising American jobs, Indian IT professionals may face stricter visa conditions. Increased scrutiny and limitations on H-1B visas would restrict the flow of Indian talent to the U.S., impacting Indian IT firms and their ability to service American clients. This could lead to a decline in remittances and put pressure on Indian firms to manage their talent pipeline effectively. - Challenges for Indian Students
For Indian students pursuing higher education and career opportunities in the U.S., Trump’s re-election could mean stricter immigration policies. This could affect their post-graduation work opportunities and add to concerns about long-term career prospects, particularly for those in STEM fields that typically rely on H-1B sponsorship.
Complications Around Iran and the Chabahar Port Project
India’s investment in Iran’s Chabahar Port, a strategic project for enhancing trade access to Central Asia, could face challenges under Trump’s re-elected administration, given his hardline stance on Iran.
- Potential Sanctions on India
Trump’s firm position on enforcing sanctions against Iran could place India’s involvement in Chabahar at risk. If the U.S. perceives India’s investment as undermining its sanctions, New Delhi may need to reassess its commitments while balancing its strategic interests. The U.S. State Department has already issued warnings regarding risks associated with investing in Iran, making India’s diplomatic efforts with Washington crucial. - Regional Trade and Diplomatic Balancing
While Chabahar remains an important trade gateway, India may face obstacles in fully realising its trade and connectivity goals if the U.S. enforces a stringent stance. The project could face delays or even restructuring, as India carefully navigates its partnerships in the Middle East to maintain favourable terms with the U.S. administration.
Environmental Policies and India’s Climate Goals
Trump’s policies on climate change and environmental agreements often lean away from international commitments, which could impact global climate goals. This raises concerns about India’s renewable energy ambitions and global climate initiatives.
- International Climate Agreements
With Trump’s re-election, the U.S. may continue its opposition to binding climate agreements, which could slow global progress toward sustainable energy. India, striving to meet its renewable energy goals, may need to adjust its strategies in light of potential funding and resource constraints from global partnerships. - Impact on India’s Renewable Sector
The absence of U.S. support for climate initiatives could affect India’s renewable energy sector, as a lack of global commitment might reduce investment and technological exchange. India’s climate policies, although ambitious, might require reassessment in the face of shifting international dynamics.
To sum up, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election signals a blend of opportunities and challenges for India. From trade advantages emerging from U.S.-China tensions to potential setbacks in visa policies, India must approach this new phase with a careful strategy. Enhanced defence ties, strategic economic corridors, and a proactive stance on balancing U.S.-Russia relations will be crucial as India navigates the complexities of Trump’s policies. The Indian government’s agile response to these developments will determine its success in capitalising on opportunities while mitigating challenges in the Trump era.
by Vaishali Sharma
Reporting for True to Life News Media